Sly As a Reuben (DEC 15)

December 15, 2009   ·   philliesmania   ·   Jump to comments

 

 Is it REALLY TRUE?

You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.

 

Everybody sing it with me!

 

O lordy me this all makes sense to me now. And no I do not see this is going back to do what you did not do before. Let’s rewind for a second and then see where we are at present.

 

JULY to NOVEMBER:

1. Phillies want Halladay

2. Toronto wants a first born and Reuben Amaro’s left or right testicle. Reportedly Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, J A Happ, and Michael Taylor. Or maybe minus one of them depending on the reports. But Drabek and was allegedly a must. Some say Brown and Drabek  were a must from Toronto’s end.

3. Amaro said too much and got Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco for Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp. Clearly a better deal albeit for a slightly lesser pitcher. But you got a great pitcher and another outfielder!

4. Lee pitches very well. Don’t forget he did have a bad patch. But he was money in the playoffs.

5. Lee wants no part of an extension without testing the free market.

 

PRESENT:

1. Halladay is still out there and wants to come to Philadelphia among a few other possibilities. HE does have some leverage with no trade clause.

2. Toronto still wants a high price. But somewhat less.

3. The cost of having Lee and Halladay would have been shipping out Happ and maybe Drabek and/or Taylor. Also you would have had to move Blanton for financial reasons. You would have doen all that to have Halladay, Lee, and Hamels for a 1 year run. Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

4. Lee was the biggest bugaboo. Halladay was willing to take a raise but less then he could get elsewhere for only a 3 year extension. Lee wants Sabbathia money and years. Lee was going to be gone after this year in all reality.

5. Trading Lee still gets you Halladay, who you wanted in July anyhow, and it gets you some young players back.

6. The deal becomes Lee goes to Seattle and Phillies send Catcher Travis d’Arnaud to Toronto. Now hear is where it gets sketchy. I first saw that in exchange for Lee, Seattle would send young right-hander Phillippe Aumont  Toronot on behalf of Philadelphia’s package. Later reports having the Phillies keeping him and sending maybe Drabek and/or Happ to Toronto. I don’t get both? Other reports have the Phillies sending Drabek, Taylor, and d’Arnaud toToronto and sending Lee to Seattle. The Phillies would then get Roy Halladay from Toronto and Aumont and at least one other prospect from Seattle.

7. “Doc” Halladay keeps his 1 year just under $16,000,000 for 2010 and gets a 3 year deal for $60,000,000. Which is probably a little less than he could command if he held out like Lee wants too.

8. Getting rid of Lee’s $9 million means you keep Blanton.

9. And most reports have Happ staying.

10. And most reports ahve you keeping Drabek or getting/keeping Aumonte.

 

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

• In the end you got Halladay, which we all wanted before Lee. Yes we would love both. But if Toronto would have taken a Lee like deal we would have had Halladay and not Lee already. And Lee is great but he is not Halladay! You made a series run with Lee and now you have 4 years to get it done with Doc Halladay who you know can pitch to the Yankees, Boston, and the Angels.

• Lee was not going to stay and to get Halladay you had to give up something. Giving up Blanton, Happ, Taylor and maybe Drabek/Brown is too much for Halladay and one year of Lee. That is 2 starters you give up and one hot future pitching prospect.

• Trading Lee brings back a couple young studs and frees up a plausible trade for Halladay. Having Aumont or Drabek is absolutely a win/win situation. Reports have Aumont as top of the rotation potential! Some reports have had Aumont on the Top 50 MLB prospects but Drabek has not gotten that love yet.  Aumonte is closer to the Big Boy league also.

• We do not know who the other prospect is either.

• Carlos Ruiz is fine as everyday catcher. Travis d’Arnaud was a reasonable inclusion for this trade.

 

Why now?

• Again if you are being honest, the cost is not as steep this way.

• Some argue you could have had all three and extended Halladay at years end. You then would have given up and taken back anything. Plus with Hamels, Lee, and Happ you are still lefty heavy Granted Lee is a stud.

• Halladay, Hamels. Happ, Blanton is pretty good.

 

Yes I admit though that I am a now guy. But what we or I would do and what Amaro would do is 2 different things. The Phillies and he had already decided that they had to have 1 stud for a couple years  and Lee was gone. Lee wanted $23,000,000 and 5 or more years. That wasn’t going to happen. Halladay is on for 2010 for the $16 Million and willing to stick with only 3 more years at $20 Million. That is 4 years total and the is a choice that had to be made in Reuben’s world.

 

These are the things that you and I don’t always include in the equation. This was an either or in the Phillies eyes. Lee for 1 year or Halladay for 4 years? Put in that form I applaud Amaro if this deal goes through. Because once you decide Halladay is your guy then you have to maximize the scenario and he did if the reports are accurate.

 

Why didn’t he give Drabek then? Ah simple because he had no replacement for him. With Aumont in the mix it changes everything in the Drabek stakes. So trading for Lee became a stop gap measure. And we should have seen this coming. Reuben had made clear the signing Lee to an extension was vital. They did not want him to walk and he made it clear he had his walking shoes on already on. So Reuben decided that the future draft compensation picks for losing Lee were not as good as acting now.

All things consider I agree! In the end you have to know what the hand is you are dealt. What we or the media see may not always be the hand the GM has. SO now that we see what he had, I applaud him for going all in! He’s the GAMBLER! Sly as a a Reuben!