As The Smoke Clears On The Halladay Deal (Dec 16)

December 16, 2009   ·   philliesmania   ·   Jump to comments

 

The dawning of a new day in Philadelphia is about to be announced. The Halladay era is about to begin. What is the PROS and what is the Cons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

DEAL #1:

• Phillies send 3 minor league players, P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, and C Travis d’Anaurd to Toronto

• Toronto sends Roy Halladay and $6,000,000 back to Philadelphia

DEAL #2:

• Phillies ship Cliff Lee to Seattle

• Seattle sends minor league hopefuls P Phillipe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies, and some reports say a 3rd in P Juan Rameriz

 

The PROS:

1 -You get “Da Man” in Roy Halladay. He is Cliff Lee and then some. The sad truth is that the Phillies had already decided if they could not sign Lee to an extension after the World Series than they would explore other options. Now while in my opinion much of this is stems from a self inflicted salary cap, this is the reality. In my mind I would have sent Blanton packing to make the financial situation work this year. But the Phillies decided that keeping Lee and getting Halladay was not an option. And that appears to be more than just money although money was clearly a factor. The cost of Halladay was high in the Phillies eyes. While prospects are just that, prospects, they do hold more value than their potential talent. They are incredible trade commodities for deals like this. And the fact is the Phillies were determined to keep a true ace for the 3 to 5 year run that Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, and maybe Hamels gives you. Halladay was willing to sign a 3 year extension with a 4th year option at $20,000,000 per year. Lee wanted more and for more years. So while he did not force an issue he made it abundantly obvious that he was going to test the free agent market unless the Phillies would give him a Sabbathia deal. 7 x $23,000,000. Do the math. $161,000,000 for Lee or $60,000,000 to $80,000,000 for Halladay?  

     

     My question is why couldn’t we do the Halladay deal, because it clearly makes sense beyond 2010, but still keep Lee for a 2010 run? The decision for the Phillies was that if Lee would have signed the deal that Halladay is signing now, there would have been no trade for Halladay. SO whether we like it or not it was an either Lee or Halladay, end of story situation. So at that point the next factor comes into the equation.

 

     IF you are giving up prospects you need to replace them. Trading Lee did just that. SO while you are trading Lee for 3 young guys you are realistically  fascilitating the Halladay trade and keeping you in the mix for future trades and maybe even one of those guys coming through your system and flourishing on the field.

 

    On paper this appears to be and is by definition a parallel move.  But only in the non baseball and in a Phillies context. However by definition you did upgrade your ace. But you still ended up with 1 ace. Nevertheless you can’t ignore the fact that the Phillies made a if / or decision. The Phillies were not going to have Lee and Halladay at the same time based on all of the variables they deem vital. Now you and I may look at that differently, but that doesn’t matter. So with the either Lee or Halladay mindset I would do what they did probably.

 

2 – Again with the 3 to 5 year window, you had Halladay willing to accomodate you and your core group for the 3 to 5 window.

 

3 – Halladay is more consistant and he is right handed. That compliments the lefty Hamels. Or it should at least.

 

4 – Halladay brings a work ethic that can only help the Phillies staff.

 

5 – He had 31 starts in 2009 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Rays and still got the numbers he had!

 

6- With rare exceptions, you know what you are getting every 5th day! Even Lee did not give you that.

 

7- Halladay throws a sinking array of pitches. He gets more ground balls and with the Phillies that is important. Too many of our pitchers give up HR’s like they are lollipops at a bank.

 

8 – You did keep the minor league system in good shape. Again I do not put too much into that as far as present play on the field. But do not underestimate the leverage that gives you if you need a mid season splash. Prospects get good to great players from the Toronto Blue Jays of the baseball world!

 

9 - Halladay, 32, is 148-76 lifetime with a 3.43 ERA. He won the 2003 Cy Young Award and finished in the top five in the Cy Young voting four other times. 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts for Toronto last season. He threw 239 innings and led the league with nine complete games.

 

10 – Phillies gave 4 minor leaguers for Lee and Francisco and got 3 for just Lee. Not a bad move on it’s own merit. Including the knowledge that the Phillies decided Lee had to go when he did not sign an extension.

 

11- You got $6,000,000 bucks in the deal also, USE IT WISELY!

 

CONS:

1 – IF Phillies ownership made a 1 year exception to the Phillies salary cap you could have kept Lee for 2010. The argument is you would have had to ship Blanton somewhere. AH NO you wouldn’t have. The point on CON #1 is that all of this is because the Phillies have drawn a line in the bank at $140,000,000 for the 2010 player payroll. If you just threw caution to the wind for this up coming season and earmarked another $10 – $15,000,000 you could have kept Lee and signed Blanton for a few years. SO what if Lee walked next year. That’s next year. And you head into 2011 with what you are doing now as a worst case scenario.

 

2 – Part of the plan also is you are banking on the Polanco signing, the bench signings and the return of the real Cole Hamels. And then there are the Lidge questions as well as the other bullpen concerns. Of course some of those issues are still to be addressed.

 

3 – Halladay is not getting any younger. Although many stud pitchers stayed dominant into their mid to later 30′s.

 

4 – Along with CON #2, you have look at winning 95 to 100 games, win the NL East. beat the improving NL teams in the playoffs, and ultimately beat the Yankees or Red Sox. Both NY and the Red Sox have a hefty 1,2,3 in their rotation. There in lies the problem I have. Halladay washes out anyone the Yankees or Sawx throw at you. Yes even Sabbathia. But Hamels? The old Hamels can go head to head with Burnett or Lester/Beckett. The 2009 Hamels was a #4 starter quality. Happ? That may be an X factor. If he progresses he may flirt with #1 ability down the road. If he improves off of last season I could see him battle Pettite and Beckett/Lester. But this remains to be seen. Now Blanton is a solid #4 and that is a good thing. Few teams have a Blanton in the #4 hole. Boston does have a shot with Dice-K though. And if Yankees sign Pineiro that wouldn’t be good for us.

 

5 – See CON #4 – If your game plan is “well we can use Halladay in Games 1,4, and 7 in the Playoffs that is not a wise way to head into a season. Believe me the Yankees would have preferred not having C C go on 3 days  if they did not have to.

6 – With back to abck World Series appearances it is hard to question t

he rationale. But aren’t the fans allowed to be greedy? And while I am a die hard Phillies devotee, I don’t think it is unreasonable to question a franchises approach when other options seem plausible.

 

In summary it is very simple. If I owned the Phillies I would have kept Lee for 2010 but I don’t own the Phillies. And even rich people have their financial limit. I doubt the Phillies ownership are that hard up, but I am not their accountant.

 

I also hope this means that good money is left for more moves. A bonafied middle reliever or a possible legit closer/set up guy? Another good starter would be nice also. But now we are back to the money.