AH? SHOULD WE PULL THE TRIGGER? (July 24, 2010)

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TO TRADE OR NOT TO TRADE? THAT IS THE RUBEN QUESTION ………..

I SAY YES ………….

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With the possible finish to Moyer’s season and maybe career you can’t have Blanton or Kendrick as your #3 man in the rotation. Heck last season when he was pitching well you didn’t start him in the playoffs! So even Manuel doesn’t see him as a #3!

You also do not know what the story is or how it will unfold with J Happ either. Potentially he can be a solid MLB pitcher, maybe even your #3, but with this being only his sophomore effort and having spent most of it with an arm strain, do you really want to bank on him now?

And that does not mean I am in a hurry to send Werth packing. Especially when he could be huge in a playoff run and in the playoffs. But as I explained in the Oswalt post, if Werth is clearly gone at the end of the season, he may improve your team more over the remainder of the year and for a couple more years by trading him!

See my Werth for Oswalt post for that rumor. But what about some other rumors?

WERTH for B J Upton and Wade Davis?

• Davis is a oh hum 7 and 9 with a 4.41 ERA. But he is a right hander and only 24 years old

Statistically speaking: Can you say durable innings eater? In 2009, he threw a total of 195 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues. He’s made at least 27 starts in each of his four full Minor League seasons, averaging 165 IP per season. And they’ve been quality ones, as proven by his career 3.28 ERA, 8.7 K/9 ratio and 1.255 WHIP.

Scouting report: Davis is a power pitcher with a heavy fastball he can get up into the mid 90s that he keeps down in the zone. He’s also got a plus curve he can throw for strikes at any time. He’s worked on a changeup and a slider, as well. He’s a good athlete and a tremendous competitor. His walk rate hasn’t been terrible, but he could stand to cut down a little on the free passes.

Upside potential: He showed he’s ready for the bigs late last year. He may start the season at the back end of the rotation, but in the future, he’sgot the stuff to be at or near the front of it.

SUMMARY:  he is already better than Kendrick and has a higher upside than the $8,000,000 man Blanton!

• Upton: He is an upside guy who is 25 and full of natural ability!
  

• He is already a great outfielder although the Langoria fight over whether Upton hustled on a fly is not something you want to see. But in Philly he would have to face Howard, Utley, and Rollins in his face!
  

• Stats are not overwhelming but he is young and is likely to break out in the near future. He can help you already though with his speed and defense and his flashes of some pop

While this move is more about what will be than what is I like it if you get both guys. However I don’t see Tampa Bays motive other than they need a bat right now if they have hopes of playoffs in 2010. They can’t wait for Upton to blossom suddenly.

But why would they want another outfielder with a contract issue? And why would they pass on a young pitcher when they need young pitchers? Although it appears that Tampa thinks they have enough young pitchers to have a solid rotation with or without Davis.

HAPP and Single A guy for Oswalt?

• For now this looks like a no brainer. Take the 2012 option for Oswalt and make a 3 year run with Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt!

• You may miss Happ in time but he has some healing to do right now and you need another big arm

• Playoff teams with 3 strong pitchers have a huge advantage

• We already know the Phillies offense can go into hibernation

• Apparently the Phillies are overstocked with Single A studs so we could go without 1 or 2
  

• Yes we need to get younger but not this year or the next year or so! This window will remain open probably for 3 years before the old reload needs to happen

So while I like J Happ he is not that valuable to lose sleep over if you trade him for an Oswalt. No Oswalt is not John Smoltz either but he is a legit top of the rotation guy with a proven ERA of 3.22 for his career and 3.12 this year!

Now in fairness Happ may surprise me and be more than the strong #3 I think he will be. He does not have over whelming stuff but he does have a 3.06 ERA in 46 games and 212 innings of MLB pitching. SO there is some risk in parting with Happ.

But he also has already had extensive time on the DL in the last year and half too. Then again Oswalt has his share of phyiscal setbacks.

For the record I want Oswalt instead of Dan Haren. Haren has also had some big time years and some big time talent.

• Haren is only 29 though and is a 14 to 17 game winner in this league and his career 3.71 ERA is not shabby!
  

• I just think Oswalt is a little better and more stable of a commodity

• Harens ERA has ballooned to 4.60 this year, maybe he is listless and maybe he is not. Oswalt is on an even worse team and he is still keeping the runs down despite his poor record and his sucky team!

• Yankees are reportedly hot on the Haren trail!
  

At the end of the day I still believe Ruben needs to do something significant to show the boys we aren’t taking a pass this year and that we have a standard to hold too now!